New Books in Review Principles of Forecasting: a Handbook for Researchers

In the late 1970s, Professor Armstrong wrote a treatise on long-range forecasting that many readers considered irreverent and humorous, albeit very insightful and highly readable (Armstrong 1978). On the basis of a detailed review of the extant empirical research, Armstrong identified, described, and provided an evaluation of the various subjective and objective methods used in forecasting. Without mincing words, he clinically dissected the relative effectiveness and usefulness of each technique. Although readers can disagree with Armstrong’s strong opinions and conclusions, there can be no disagreement on the overall impact the book had on the science of forecasting. In his new magnum opus, Armstrong continues his tradition of extending the frontiers of knowledge on forecasting by incorporating 39 other experts as coauthors and contributors. In his inimitable style, Armstrong explains the need for “principles in forecasting” by narrating a personal experience. He writes (pp. 4–5):